With all of the excitement surrounding Week 1 of the NFL season, my predictions for the upcoming season got lost in the shuffle. Without further adieu:
AFC
1st Round Byes: Baltimore, Miami
Wild Card Weekend
Houston vs. Indianapolis: Houston
New England vs. San Diego: New England
AFC Divisionals
Baltimore vs. New England: Baltimore
Miami vs. Houston: Houston
AFC Championship
Baltimore vs. Houston: Baltimore
Well that sure was an interesting week for college football. I couldn’t have been more wrong about giving credit to the ACC this year, although I should have known. They get beat every year by any good team out of conference. Miami, Florida St., Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, UVA all lose games this weekend. Between the ACC and Big East, one really has to question why these two conferences deserve BCS births this season. Enjoy the game between those teams down at the Orange Bowl.
The other thing that was painful to hear this weekend is just because Va. Tech lost to JMU that should eliminate Boise St. from the BCS title picture. For all those who said that, get off your high horse. Boise St. can’t control what their competition does, they control what they do. If they go through the season undefeated and are one of two teams that do so they should and will be in the national title game. But they still have tough games remaining: Oregon St., Fresno St., Utah St. and Nevada. And now onto the new top 15:
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Much like I am doing for college football this season, I will take a look at the top 3 NFL games of the weekend. Briefly break them down and tell you who could have a big fantasy day and finally pick a winner. And here we go with the big games of Week 1:
Indianapolis @ Houston, 1:00 PM
Over the years Peyton Manning has had the Texans number even when the Colts have been out played. Is this the year the Texans finally break through and get the victory? I think so and here is why.
The Texans now appear to have a go to RB in Arian Foster. This should keep the Colts defense honest and allow Schaub the time to find Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter. Arian Foster doesn’t need to touch the ball 30 times in this game but 20 should be about enough to help lighten the load on the passing game.
The Colts will keep pace with the Texans, there is no doubt about that. Manning has so many targets at his disposal that it’s almost unfair. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie came up huge last year and it will be up to them to do it again. Dallas Clark always has a big game against Houston. Reggie Wayne can still get it done, but over the last few games last season he slowed down. So be cautious of that for later this season.
Bottom line these two teams are so evenly matched that it will come down to the final 5 minutes of the game. I expect the Texans to be leading by a field goal but this year they will be able to run the clock out with their running game.
Pick: Texans 31 Colts 28
There are plenty of great matchups as we head into Week 2 of the college football season. Last week I was 3-0 with picks, hopefully some of the magic continues this week. We will take a look at three games that have ranked opponents facing each other. First game to take a look at has the top ranked team in the country:
Penn St. (#18 AP Poll) @ Alabama (# 1), Saturday, 7:00, ESPN
The top ranked team in the country will face its toughest non-conference opponent of the season as Penn St. comes to town. Both teams won rather easily in Week 1, so this contest should give you a better picture of what each team is capable of. It appears Alabama will once again be playing without their Heisman Trophy winning running back, but they still have plenty of other weapons. Greg McElroy looked very comfortable running the offense in last week, throwing to big time targets Julio Jones and Marquis Maze. And Alabama’s 2nd and 3rd string RB’s could start for most teams in the country.
For Penn St., they travel to Tuscaloosa with a freshman QB. Expect the Nittany Lions to try to get the running game going early to take pressure off the young QB. Also expect that to fail. Alabama’s defense won’t let the Penn St. running game get going and they will try to force the youngster into beating them with his arm. I’m not saying Rob Bolden can’t do it, but it is not likely.
Pick: Alabama 34 Penn St. 16
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, but a leaky offensive line and an impossible road schedule will lead to some bouts of adversity in 2010. Last season, Tony Romo led the franchise to its first playoff win since 1996. There’s more than enough firepower to repeat as NFC East champs, but anything beyond that, let’s say for instance a Super Bowl appearance in their backyard, is wishful thinking. Projected Record: 10-6
2. Washington Redskins – A fourth-place schedule, a two-time Super Bowl winning head coach, a quarterback with five NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl appearance on his resume. Call me crazy, but that sounds like a formula for success. If the Redskins are to make any noise in Mike Shanahan’s first season as the boss in D.C., it starts in September: four of their first six opponents were 11-5 or better in 2009. Projected Record: 9-7
3. Philadelphia Eagles – The Kevin Kolb era begins in Philadelphia with the same expectations the Donovan McNabb era left behind. Kolb should be just fine, but it may take a season or two to get all of the young kids on offense — DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy and Brent Celek — playing at a championship level. Expect the push for a wild card berth to come up just short. Projected Record: 8-8
4. New York Giants – A revamped defense looks to help spearhead a return to the postseason after a disappointing close to the 2009 season. Big Blue signed prized free agent safety Antrel Rolle to big money this off-season to team-up with the often-injured but talented Kenny Phillips in the secondary. Offensively, Eli Manning is hoping wide receiver Hakeem Nicks breaks out in his second season. Projected Record: 7-9
Week 1 of the college football season is a wrap and well it lived up to the expectations. It was a gigantic week for the top dogs in the non-automatic qualifier conferences. Boise St., TCU, Fresno St., Utah and BYU all took down teams from BCS conferences. In a major upset Jacksonville St., led by a freshman QB who was player of the year for football his senior year of high school in Alabama, took down Mississippi. Any SEC school could have had the kid, but chose not too because he also is a top baseball prospect. ECU beat Tulsa on the last play of the game. And two top ten schools did not live up to the hype and will drop in this week’s rankings.
As you can see I was 3-0 picking games this week on the site, and I was 2-1-1 against the spread not on the site. I hit my two big bets with Oregon St +13 and Boise ML +105. For those interested I will post the games I have “fun” with in the comments section of the weekly preview going forward. I will post them 30 minutes to an hour before they kickoff. And it could be any game so you’ll have to check back in or email me.
And here is your new BumpandRun.com Top 15 heading into Week 2:
AFC East
1. Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins brought in Brandon Marshall for a boost on offense and Karlos Dansby for consistency at the linebacker position. They seem poised to make a run for the division title, but it is all in the hands of quarterback Chad Henne. If he is consistent and can limit his turnovers, look for the Phins to be right there in December. Projected Record: 11-5
2. New England Patriots – They have Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Add to that some tight ends that can catch the ball and their offense should be a machine. On the other side of the ball, it should be interesting to see how the young, unknown secondary holds up this season. Projected Record: 11-5
3. New York Jets – Made the surprising run last season in the playoffs. They have a championship level defense, there is no doubt about that. They also have championship talent on offense with the only exception being the most key position, quarterback. Mark Sanchez is a major, major question mark and there is no help behind him on the depth chart. Projected Record: 8-8
4. Buffalo Bills – The Bills made a coaching change in the offseason bringing in offensive-minded Chan Gailey to run things. The first pick in this year’s draft was explosive running back CJ Spiller. The Bills promise to be a much more dynamic team on offense this year but can the defense stop anybody? Projected Record: 5-11
1. Ryan Mathews - Not much is expected of the 22-year-old from Fresno State this season, just a few minor tasks: a) replace former face of the franchise, LaDainian Tomlinson, b) alleviate the pressure on quarterback Philip Rivers and the San Diego passing game without the services of two-time Pro Bowl LT Marcus McNeill and c) help lead the Chargers to a place where Tomlinson tried but could never get to: the Super Bowl. Other than that, just your average, entry-level job out of college, right? Mathews has looked like a seasoned vet this preseason and should be a top 10 fantasy running back in 2010.
2. Jahvid Best - Did the Lions strike gold? When Jahvid Best was drafted in the second round of the NFL draft in April, you got the feeling that the team lucky enough to snatch him up would reap the benefits quickly. Best had some injury concerns at Cal, but this preseason he’s looked every bit as fast and dynamic as Tennessee’s Chris Johnson. Obviously only time will tell, but the maturation of quarterback Matthew Stafford and the additions of Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler to go with Calvin Johnson will give Best room to showcase his take-it-to-the-house speed. Best enters 2010 as a solid RB2/flex with RB1 upside.
1. Larry Fitzgerald – One of the NFL’s best receivers has had a tough preseason. Fitzgerald sprained his MCL during the Cardinals’ first preseason game, sidelining him until opening day. Oh, and in case you haven’t heard, Kurt Warner isn’t the quarterback in the desert anymore. In fact, neither is Matt Leinart. Derek Anderson will take over as the starter and while he may be better than Leinart when it comes to throwing the deep ball, he ain’t Warner. I worry that Fitzgerald’s stats will suffer in 2010 through no fault of his own. He’s still a top five fantasy receiver, but also take into consideration that Anquan Boldin used to make life a little easier on Fitz too. Bottom line: he’s going to earn everything he gets this season.
2. DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart – Did you know that I scored as many touchdowns as the Carolina Panthers offense did this preseason? The Cats became the first NFL team in 14 years to be held without an offensive touchdown in the exhibition play. Head coach John Fox is in the last year of his contract, I hope he’s at least trying! In all seriousness, the running game has been and will continue to be the Panthers’ bread and butter, which is why I’m a little concerned they weren’t able to punch it in at least once. DeAngelo Williams rushed nine times for 13 yards in the Panthers’ third preseason game, better known as the “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. Jonathan Stewart didn’t even play a snap in the preseason as he recovers from a heel injury. We should also mention that wide receiver Steve Smith has also been out the entire preseason, so this worrying about the Panthers offense could be all for not. But if they put up a goose egg against the G-Men next week…
We couldn’t resist. The NFL kicks-off in just seven days but the college game gets started this Thursday. Each week, Pat Greissing will highlight three of the weekend’s biggest match-ups and unveil BumpAndRun.com’s Top 15.
Pittsburgh vs. Utah: Thursday, 8:30PM EST, Versus
The college football season kicks-off on Thursday night with two of our top 15 teams playing on Versus. Pittsburgh opens up the season after crumbling in their regular season finale last year. A half of football away from a BCS game and the Panthers failed to deliver. They return sophomore sensation Dion Lewis at RB, but running against the Utes could prove difficult.
The Utes begin their last season in the underrated Mountain West Conference with a home game against a BCS school. The Utes are very tough on defense and have an All-American caliber DE in Jabaal Sheard. The game will rest on the arm of QB Jordan Wynn as he attempts to begin the season where he left off last year.
Pick: Utah 27-Pitt 17
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