Fantasy Football Face-off 2010: Part 2
Great fantasy football minds don’t always think alike. In an effort to give you two schools of thought before your fantasy drafts next month, Bump and Run is bringing you a two-part fantasy football primer to help you get a leg-up on the competition. Most fantasy sites and publications will try to make you believe that their outlook is the be-all end-all, but let’s be real: everyone thinks differently. In order to be successful, you need to create your own style and feel confident about it. Chris Hayre caps it off in Part 2 of our Fantasy Football Face-off:
Five Fantasy Draft Rules to Live By:
1. Dare to be Different – Just because everyone in your league drafts a running back in the first round doesn’t mean you need to follow suit! If your gut is telling you to draft another position, switch it up. Who knows, you may psyche out your competition and force them into silly mistakes.
2. YES on Rookie RB’s –Rookie running backs tend to make big splashes early in their careers (Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, etc.). Give guys like Ryan Mathews (Chargers) and Jahvid Best (Lions) some serious consideration.
3. NO on Rookie QB’s, WR’s –Two words: learning curve. Don’t be drafting Sam Bradford or Tim Tebow.
4. Analyze the Little Things –The landscape of the NFL changes quite a bit from season to season. You should know that Larry Fitzgerald isn’t catching balls from Kurt Warner anymore or that Miles Austin has four or five other playmakers around him that may take away from some of his production in 2010.
5. Pay Attention to Preseason – In the later rounds of your fantasy draft, target diamond-in-the-rough-guys who have lit up the preseason and will get legitimate shots to make plays during the regular season.
QB Rankings
1. Aaron Rodgers: Had an unreal 2009 and he’s just getting started. No one would be mad if you drafted Mr. Rodgers late 1st round.
2. Drew Brees: The guy puts up gaudy numbers, plain and simple. No reason to believe 2010 will be any different. Expect, maybe that little “Madden Curse” thing.
3. Peyton Manning: He never misses a start. He has go-to receivers in Wayne and Clark. He can get the little people involved in the offense (Garcon and Collie). As a fantasy owner, it feels good to know you have 300 passing yards and 3 TD’s in your back pocket when you need it most.
4. Tom Brady: Tom Terrific is due for one of those bounce-back seasons, can’t you feel it? They say it takes two seasons to fully recover from an ACL injury. If that’s the case, we may be witnessing something similar to 2007 all over again.
5. Matt Schaub: I love Schaub – I’m just not sure if this guy can ever stay healthy. It will also be interesting to see how he performs without Kyle Shanahan running the offense. At the end of the day, he throws to the best receiver in football – and connects. A lot.
6. Tony Romo: With weapons all over the field, Romo is another can’t-miss pick in a deep crop of quarterbacks.
7. Philip Rivers: Losing Vincent Jackson to start the season hurts his value a bit, but expect Malcolm Floyd to fill-in admirably and for Rivers to put up similar numbers to that of 2009.
8. Brett Favre: I’m basing this on the assumption that he’s coming back (he is). It won’t be quite as story-book as last season, but snagging Favre late in your draft could be gold.
9. Jay Cutler: Cutler underwhelmed last season but Mike Martz is running the show and the man knows how to coach QB’s. His receivers are suspect, but Cutler can fling it with the best of them and won’t repeat his disappointing 2009 campaign.
10. Joe Flacco: With Ray Rice primed for a breakout season, Flacco should be able to throw have some time to throw to new target Anquan Boldin. We’ve seen glimpses of brilliance from Joe Cool, could this be the year he takes the next step?
RB Rankings
1. Chris Johnson: While the consensus #1’s contract squabble with the Titans is over for now, expect this whole situation to only fuel the fire of CJ2K. Johnson is the most dynamic player in football and should put up similar numbers to that of 2009.
2. Adrian Peterson: Whether Favre returns or not (he’s returning), All Day is still going to put up All-Pro numbers. The fumbles were a concern last season, but I’d be more fearful of injuries with Peterson. Despite any negatives, Peterson is a no-brainer at #2 and well worth all the risks.
3. Ray Rice: I have a sneaky suspicion that Rice is ready to break out in a big way — and when it’s all said and done, he may end up being the best player drafted in your league. The acquisition of Anquan Boldin coupled with an extra year of experience under-center for Joe Flacco equals bigger running lanes for Rice. Top five pick, no questions asked.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew: MJD will continue to dominate the spotlight in Jacksonville (carries and catches), but you have to wonder how much he will have in the tank when the fantasy playoffs come around?
5. Frank Gore: The best offensive player on a team picked by many to win the NFC West. Sounds like a recipe for fantasy success, no? Injuries are always a concern but you can’t think that way when drafting an elite player. Gore should have a nice year and is more than capable of carrying your fantasy team to the promised land.
6. Michael Turner: Not sure what to make of Turner. He scored a lot of TD’s last season despite being hurt for six games. You know he’s the featured back – not a bad late first round snag.
7. Steven Jackson: Injury prone and on a bad team, yet he’s drafted in the top 10 every season because he’s physically gifted. He may rush for 1,400 yards but there’s probably a greater chance of him out 4-6 weeks with an injury. You can have him, I’m staying away.
8. Ryan Mathews: What did I say about rookie running backs? This kid looks to be in the best situation out of all of them. It’s hard to say “draft with confidence” but…draft with confidence.
9. Rashard Mendenhall: Good news: the four-game suspension of Ben Rothelisberger means 25+ carries per game for Mendenhall to start the season. Bad news: the recent season-ending injury to OT Willie Colon is a huge blow and will hamper both the running game and overall efficiency of the offense. Mendenhall was a stud for most of 2009, but if the Steelers stink this year and have to play from behind, Mendenhall could disappoint.
10. Shonn Green: A rookie who decided to come alive last season when it mattered most. OC Brian Schottenhiemer will try to keep LT happy with 10-15 carries a game but make no mistake, Green is the workhorse.
WR Rankings
1. Andre Johnson: Best receiver in football and you know what the best part is? He’s single, double and triple team proof.
2. Randy Moss: Contract year. Welker’s ahead of schedule. Tom Brady’s healthy. Yep, draft him.
3. Larry Fitzgerald: Matt Leinert may have single-handedly dropped Larry Fitz’s draft value – and he’s still the #3 WR overall. Draft with confidence but don’t expect numbers to exceed any of his previous all-pro seasons.
4. Reggie Wayne: The model of consistency. Seriously, if you’re in a bind and don’t know who to draft after the big 3 WR’s are off the board, look no further than Wayne.
5. Roddy White: Another safe, sure-fire stud who has a great rapport with Matty-Ice.
6. Calvin Johnson: Megatron’s production was down last season due in large part to playing with a rookie quarterback and unproven WR’s around him. Nate Burleson will attempt to do his best Robin impression and Matthew Stafford now has a season under his belt. Things are looking brighter for Calvin – 1,300 yards and 12 TD’s isn’t a stretch.
7. Brandon Marshall: You’re always skeptical when a player starts with a new team in a new system, but Marshall is an exception. If you’re in a PPR league, this is one of your go-to guys.
8. Greg Jennings: Could be the leading man in arguably the best offense in football. Didn’t score a ton last season but the opportunities are there.
9. Sidney Rice: This is contingent on Favre coming back and though that seems to change like the wind, I’m confident the gunslinger will be under center come opening night and Rice was his favorite target last season.
10. DeSean Jackson: Jackson has already made it known that he’s happy Kevin Kolb is the new starting quarterback of the Eagles and that a certain QB that wears #5 is elsewhere. A big play guy who could really break out this season.
TE Rankings
1. Antonio Gates: He may be starting the downside of his career, but with Vincent Jackson gone indefinitely, the Bolts will lean on Gates more than ever before.
2. Vernon Davis: Flourished with Alex Smith under center. A beefed up O-line should help the overall efficiency of the offense, which means huge numbers for Davis.
3. Dallas Clark: Could easily end up being the best fantasy TE in football when it’s all said and done.
4. Jermichael Finley: Up and coming young star – having Aaron Rodgers as your QB doesn’t hurt either.
5. Jason Witten: One of the many weapons on the Cowboys offense. But are there enough fantasy points to go around?
6. Tony Gonzalez: Don’t kid yourself; he’s not the Gonzo of old. But your fellow fantasy owners may think differently. Let ‘em.
7. Brent Celek: Up and coming young star with the job all to himself. A nice security blanket for Kolb.
8. Chris Cooley: Should return to the Redskins lineup 100% healthy though. Pros: McNabb loves the tight end. Cons: Fred Davis may take some of CC’s catches/TD’s away.
9. Heath Miller: Always steady, never fancy. While other owners in your league will target the top TE’s, look for Miller in later rounds. Nice value.
10. Zach Miller: In Washington, Jason Campbell leaned heavily on the tight end. Expect Miller to get a lot of looks in 2010. Another great value guy.
DEF Rankings
1. NY Jets
2. Baltimore
3. Green Bay
4. Pittsburgh
5. Minnesota
6. Dallas
7. Philadelphia
8. San Francisco
9. Cincinnati
10. Indianapolis
