Fantasy Football Face-off 2010: Part 1
Great fantasy football minds don’t always think alike. In an effort to give you two schools of thought before your fantasy drafts next month, Bump and Run is bringing you a two-part fantasy football primer to help you get a leg-up on the competition. Most fantasy sites and publications will try to make you believe that their outlook is the be-all end-all, but let’s be real: everyone thinks differently. In order to be successful, you need to create your own style and feel confident about it. Pat Greissing kicks-off Part 1 of our Fantasy Football Face-off:
Five Fantasy Rules to Live By:
1. Avoid the Kicker – Never draft a kicker until the last round and if you don’t have to draft one then don’t. Load up on position players and see how the preseason plays out (and that is why I don’t even bother ranking the kickers).
2. Delay on Defense – Don’t draft a defense before round 11. And only do it then if one of the top 4 is still on the board, otherwise wait until the last two rounds. You can win leagues by playing waiver wire D’s.
3. Draft a RB First…or not – RB’s will always go first but should they? You need to play 2(or 3) compared to 1 QB, but with most NFL teams employing 2 RB’s, is having a stud QB more important??
4. Good Players + Bad Team = Forget It – Try to stay clear of guys on teams that aren’t any good. Bad teams don’t score, so what benefit are their players in fantasy? Start poaching those guys off the waiver wire around Week 7.
5. ALWAYS Offer Trades – Especially after Week 3 to teams that start 0-3. This is the time to pounce. Offer 3 for 1 deals, 3 mediocre guys for a stud. It will probably be rejected but it starts a conversation and you can end up getting some bargains.
QB Rankings
1. Aaron Rodgers: He led all QB’s in fantasy scoring a year ago, and there is no reason to expect that to change. Not only will he out-throw his competition but he also scrambled for over 300 yards last season.
2. Drew Brees: He led the Saints to the Super Bowl victory last season and I’d expect more of the same from Brees this year. While the offense was close to a 50-50 split between run and pass last year, expect that number to go back up to 60-40 in favor of passing this season.
3. Matt Schaub: When you have the best WR in football and a poor running game the ball is going to be in the air quite a bit. As long as he stays healthy expect big things out of Schaub.
4. Peyton Manning: The guy is always one of the top QB’s even when you don’t expect him to be.
5. Tony Romo: Miles Austin emerged last season and then they got the steal of the draft as Dez Bryant fell into their laps. If the Cowboys place more of an emphais on their passing game this season, Romo will thrive.
6. Tom Brady: He still has Moss to throw to and Welker is supposedly ahead of schedule following his knee injury. Brady will let it fly.
7. Brett Favre: He will be back this season and probably next year as well. With AP and White Thunder in the backfield, expect teams to load up in the box allowing Favre to audible on his own and go crazy.
8. Joe Flacco: So one of the best teams in the league adds Boldin and Stallworth. Yeah, the rest of the AFC should be scared. Putting Flacco at #8 could be low-balling him, but they also have a stud RB so I’m being cautious with this projection.
9. Kevin Kolb: He is going to step in and the Eagles won’t miss McNabb at all. Kolb has the young WR’s to throw the ball and is probably a better decision maker than Donovan at this point.
10. Jay Cutler: He might throw a lot of INT’s but he will still put it up in the air. The guy has no conscience and that is probably a good thing for a QB in Chicago.
Not in the Top 10 (but you thought they should be)
Philip Rivers: Not knowing whether Vincent Jackson will be there, no LT in the backfield, just too many questions for me to have confidence in him.
Donovan McNabb: The veteran heads to a divisional rival. The question mark is the WR’s and will the O-line protect him? My guess is he ends up-right around the 15th QB.
RB Rankings
1. Chris Johnson: The best RB in the league and he will be again in 2010. Contract situation solved, he will be in camp on time. Expect great things from CJ.
2. Ray Rice: Took over as the teams #1 RB last year and expect even more holes for him this season as the passing game should be much improved.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew: The Jags literally have nothing else. Jones-Drew should get the ball an awful lot – the only question is will he get banged up due to all the touches?
4. Steven Jackson: Yes, I know the team is bad and the QB will be shaky. So what does that mean? Lean heavily on your best player.
5. Adrian Peterson: Yup, AP’s #5 and I was tempted to put him lower. His yards per carry dropped last season and the way he runs is starting to impact him. You never want to see anyone get hurt, but you just get the feeling that AP’s style might result in that this season.
6. Michael Turner: A year ago, I took him #1 over Peterson. And of course he got hurt. Expect the Burner to bounce back this season and for his carries to be monitored closely.
7. DeAngelo Williams: Williams is very explosive and will need to be as Carolina will rely heavily on the running attack this season.
8. Cedric Benson: He was simply awesome last season for the Bengals. Can he do it again?? That’s the ultimate question in Cincy.
9. Frank Gore: Gore is a stud, no doubt about that. He has top 5 talent, but the 49ers changed their scheme in the second half of last season.
10. Ryan Mathews: Going out on a limb here, but the kid from Fresno State can get it done. Expect a solid rookie campaign from Mr. Mathews.
Not in the Top 10 (but you thought they should be)
Shonn Greene: Was solid down the stretch and in the playoffs. Now Thomas Jones is gone, but LT is in. So no one knows what his role will truly be. Could be drafted anywhere from 10-22 overall.
WR Rankings
1. Andre Johnson: The best WR in football on and up and coming team. He’ll have over 100 catches, over 1500 yards and double digit TD’s.
2. Larry Fitzgerald: No more Anquan or Kurt in Arizona, so you’d expect more balls thrown to him. Have to keep your best player involved.
3. Brandon Marshall: Damn it feels good to put a Dolphins WR this high in fantasy rankings. The only question mark is can Henne get Marshall the ball enough and I think the answer is absolutely he will.
4. Calvin Johnson: The combination of Stafford to Johnson will be heard routinely every week. Over 1200 yards and double digit TD’s.
5. Randy Moss: With Welker probably out for the first couple of games, Moss’ numbers should take a slight hit. But will the frustration from facing double teams in the first few games carry on throughout the season?
6. Reggie Wayne: When you have Manning as your QB and you are the main target, a top 10 fantasy ranking is a given.
7. Greg Jennings: He has the top ranked QB on his team so you know balls will be coming his way. He will get more TD’s this year, that’s a lock – probably double digit TD’s.
8. DeSean Jackson: There is not a corner in the league that can run with Jackson when he decides to go and Kolb knows this. But does Andy Reid fully recognize this yet?
9. Roddy White: Should have a solid year, but his numbers will come down a bit with a fully healthy Turner in the backfield.
10. Marques Colston: Not afraid to go over the middle, a big red zone target, does everything a QB would want from his WR.
Not in the Top 10 (but you thought they should be)
Miles Austin: Had an awesome, breakout year in 2009. However expect Dez Bryant to take some of those catches and TD’s away in 2010.
Anquan Boldin: He’s got the top 10 profile but there are just too many targets now on the Ravens offense. Who thought those words would ever be written??
Chad Ochocinco: He could be a top 10 WR if he wants to be. But he’s at the point of his career where it’s more about winning over stats, so expect Antonio Bryant to lighten his load.
TE Rankings
1. Vernon Davis: The second half of last season the 49ers switched their scheme – went more shot-gun and spread the field. That is when Davis broke out and that will continue into this season.
2. Dallas Clark: Just like Reggie Wayne being in the top 10, if you are Manning’s TE (check down) you are guaranteed a top 3 TE ranking.
3. Antonio Gates: He gets it done every year. Consistency at the position. I would rather draft consistency than perhaps a one-year wonder.
4. Tony Gonzalez: Really helped the Falcons’ offense last year, expect him to add even more this season. The White, Turner, Gonzalez trio is pretty solid in ATL.
5. Jermichael Finley: An unexpected breakout year in 2009 for Finley and he really only played half the season. He is an athletic, big target for Rodgers.
6. Jason Witten: Just like Clark, Gates and Gonzalez, you can’t beat consistency at the TE position.
7. Brent Celek: A great 2009, but McNabb checked down a lot more than I expect Kolb to this season.
8. Chris Cooley: His numbers took a hit last year as the ‘Skins struggled big time. But with McNabb in town and the fact he loves to check down as I just mentioned, expect a bounce back season for Captain Chaos.
9. Owen Daniels: A key member of the Texans offense. Tore his ACL halfway through last season, but is expected to be back and healthy.
10. Kellen Winslow: Winslow was so happy to get out of Cleveland that he had a great 2009 in Tampa Bay. Yeah you heard correctly, a great year in Tampa with no-names throwing him the ball, so it shows just how talented he is.
DEF Rankings
1. NY Jets: Clearly the most talented defense in the league.
2. Baltimore: Their defense is just consistently good, even without any talent at the CB position.
3. Green Bay: Solid defense that creates turnovers at a high rate.
4. Philadelphia: The one thing the Eagles do and have always done is blitz and blitz a lot. This creates sacks and turnovers which in fantasy outweigh the big plays that they can potentially give up.
5. Dallas: They got a lot of pressure on the opposing QB last season. While Wade Phillips might not be a great head coach, he knows how to coach a defense.
6. New Orleans: Part of the reason they won the Super Bowl was creating a turnover in a big situation. They seemed to do that all year long and no reason to believe that will change.
7. Minnesota: The Vikings D will again be very formidable. In 2009 they got after the QB, but didn’t create enough turnovers.
8. Miami: Most likely, no one else has them this high. But Mike Nolan is in at defensive coordinator and he knows how to get the most out of what he has. Add that to a solid draft and the CB’s being a year older.
9. Denver: They surprised many last season and will continue to do what they do best: get to the QB.
10. Cleveland: There is actually something good occurring in the Browns organization – the D has a solid foundation. This might be a defense that you pick-up/draft early and play for the first 8 weeks of the season until they tire because they are on the field way too much.
Next week, Chris Hayre will give you his take in Part 2 of Bump and Run’s Fantasy Football Face-off.
